Putin knew a war would be unpopular and had kept all of his previous military interventions limited before the current invasion of Ukraine. Right now, the Russian military is in no condition to fight NATO, and it is unclear to what extent the partial mobilization will solve Russia’s military problems. Moreover, the finger on the nuclear button is still that of Vladimir Putin rather than Patrushev or other hardliners. At the same time, the Ukrainians, the most likely victims of any tactical Russian nuclear strike, remain committed to fighting despite the risk. The fight is not only about Ukraine alone: For Putin and the hardliners alike, it’s about the West.

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